Pronóstico de la demanda en la empresa calzados de nela, sociedad  de responsabilidad limitada / demand forecasting in the company calzados de nela, limited liability company

Jimmy Ernesto  Fernández Cabrera; Aramis  Alfonso Llanes; Rafael Agustín Ramos Gómez

Authors

Jimmy Ernesto Fernández Cabrera Analytica Sociedad de la Responsabilidad Limitada, Yaguajay. Sancti Spíritus, Cuba. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0900-0173
Aramis Alfonso Llanes Universidad Central “Marta Abreu” de Las Villas, Facultad de Ingeniería Mecánica e Industrial. Santa Clara, Cuba. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8984-5864
Rafael Agustín Ramos Gómez Universidad Central “Marta Abreu” de Las Villas, Facultad de Ingeniería Mecánica e Industrial. Santa Clara, Cuba. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4046-7038

Keywords:

demand forecasting; MSMEs; operations management.

Abstract

Introduction: Demand forecasting is a key element in the planning of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).

Objective: To develop the forecast of the monthly demand of the finished production in the Company "Calzados de Nela", Limited Liability Company (LCC), using the methodological tool that best suits the conditions of the entity under study.

Methods: The fundamental methods used in the research were the following: theoretical methods such as analytical-synthetic for the review of the state of knowledge and practice, and modeling for the design of the procedure; empirical methods such as scientific observation, document and comparative analysis, and unstructured interviews; and statistical methods such as classification and trend analysis for the study of the data and results.

Results: The fundamental result achieved in the research is the proposed procedure for carrying out the demand forecast in the company object of practical study, based on the analysis of those of its type available in the scientific literature.

Conclusions: The practical application of the proposal highlights the advantage of adopting techniques, methods and tools of Operations Management in the MSMEs. With this application, the company "Calzados de Nela", (LCC) is able to identify the most appropriate forecasting method according to the characteristic parameters of the studied demand, as well as to forecast the monthly sales of shoes for the year 2022 with an accurate estimated level of precision (according to the considered measure of error).

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Author Biographies

Jimmy Ernesto Fernández Cabrera, Analytica Sociedad de la Responsabilidad Limitada, Yaguajay. Sancti Spíritus, Cuba.

Ingeniero Industrial. Master Administración de operaciones. Director ejecutivo (Gerencia).

Aramis Alfonso Llanes, Universidad Central “Marta Abreu” de Las Villas, Facultad de Ingeniería Mecánica e Industrial. Santa Clara, Cuba.

Ingeniero industrial. Dr.C. en Ingeniería Industrial. Profesor Titular.

Rafael Agustín Ramos Gómez, Universidad Central “Marta Abreu” de Las Villas, Facultad de Ingeniería Mecánica e Industrial. Santa Clara, Cuba.

Ingeniero Industrial. Master en Ingenieria Industrial. Doctor en Ciencias Técnicas (Ph D), Especialidad Ingeniería. Profesor Titular.

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